Archer civ winrates for the majority of players are abysmal on latest patch

@casusincorrabil & @IndeanCondor

Apologies I wanted to correct my earlier statements. I spent a while longer playing around with this as the results didn’t make sense to me. I also posted a question about it on cross validated which got answered by a consultant statistician :slight_smile:

In summary if a logistic regression model (and more generally any binomial model/distribution) doesn’t correctly account for the explanatory variables properly then this results in beta coefficient values which are biased towards 0. Thus I would argue not accounting for difference in Elo is likely to lead to inaccurate estimates. The degree of this bias and whether or not it affects us here is not yet clear to me.

I played around with my simulation some more and was able to replicate these results.


No, I just am not interested in talking and wasting time with a person who clearly has no business being in science.

“Us physicists” submit papers with proof for findings while defending calculations. We don’t demand statistical models to disprove us first before providing proof ourselves

Also you purposely misconstrued my saying the sample size needs to be orders of magnitude higher to remove the effect of Elo to instead mean the confidence interval will be orders of magnitude higher. I genuinely have no interest in debating or discussing anything with someone who will purposely misunderstand statements to make their point

Thank you for your effort coolios9876, quite insightful

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