Ok, I’m sorry but everything you just say it’s incorrect here.
I’m not saying this to offend you, to be clear, but you can’t just say that those percentages are the probability of winning, nor that 53.4% is about 40% just because they seem similare, 13.4% of difference could mean that they are two different numbers as much that they are the same, this isn’t how statistic works, you have to justify trough calculations your hypotesis.
On another discussion which I link below, I already explain why we can’t trust those number too much, those are rough number, you have to analyze them through statistical methods.
We have to be careful on how we interpret those numbers, because they can bring us to incorrect conclusions.