i usually watch twitch 1v1s and also rec games but tbh the issue here often if the defenders will just move the goalposts by saying said player should do X etc instead of earnestly assessing that in a game with so many variables, there is limited ability for 2 players to be 3k iq on every matchup. Civ, play preference etc all play into things. The recs, with your already caveat of âwell enemy should probably just play perfectlyâ makes it devolve into blame game instead of the actual debate of âgiven 2 equal players, over many games, does 1 civ pull ahead significantly?â if i play an ff into CA, is it op? well thats where the rec can give some ideas on timings, mass, res gathered. But in aoe3 most things break down here as the very strong asymmetric design usually boils down to: did my opponents have enough signs to recognize and counter in a reasonable timeframe,; and same for me in my decision making was i giving and taking in tempo, unit comps, and give and take in the battle? as the CA vs baja example, its the exact same macro and often same federal cards and even the same decks 90% of the time. how am i to know which is which to come from a mid map hacienda? or which comes after the inital 10 piki wave? where does the opponent get to feel out the revolt in age2 and scout it? there is a reaosn all old revolts were locked to 4 btw, because the devs recongized this is too much coin flip if not extremely balanced. Precognition is not developed at least publicly yet, and should probably not be the meta we strive for.
Its why the 2 things are often used are the more simplistic, not always great to represent things, use of values and stats, as well as win rates. As it stands, the Mexican win rate is right on the cusp of underpowered (47% avg, with some surges and dips across elos) and res to res most their shipments outstrip other civ equivalents by a solid margin in multitudes. The rest will always come down to more subjective evaluations unless someone is willing to comb through 1000s of games.
So what can I conclude? Iâd say the win rate is bound to get back up. Nerf wiplash is real and one objective fact is how DE civ players pretend to know their civ, yet even legacy civs can take years to master in this complex game. There is no way mexico is explored fully at this time. As for nr20, 40 and beyond, its been proven in events over and over its basically beyond cheese in power with known builds. For 1v1 supremecy, well how does a low but not cratered (see malta at 41% at times and that is a crater) civ with overvalued shipments and options and a massive xp curve do so poorly? maybe nothing here will prove anything to you or others but clearly the cards are somehow completely shit (unlikely) or the civ is needing to not go piki/skirm>CA>FI>the same 3 or 4 age 4 shipments every single game. Youâre no longer otto in your ability to play the same build over and over (maybe not if bajaâing)
Still, Iâd wager, just like i felt for italy before the super buffs people called for âdead civâ italy that started to climb right before it was soaring in win rates then buffed, or usa, or hausa, or Ethiopia (ded civ my butt) that mexico with its extremely strong options, is 1 new pro showcase away from terrorizing everyone aggain. once mexico players realize there is infact an age3 to 4 option, or baja is still bullshit .check discords fwiw of baja games or youtube, I think its the new botto to 1500+ elo strat since it requires like 0 macro or micro past 530min) at a minimum if just not completely busted. And while you and I dont play much treaty, if they can balance something there late late game why not? doesnt effect us.
Anyways, again I dont expect anyone to have their belief changed here. Just give it time, a civ with cshipments often more worth 1.2x most other civs, uber eco buildings, access to up to 60 something cards in a game to pick from all waiting for the right meta shift or other civ to get hammered to rear its head. or for a unneeded buff to send it into overdrive. again.