Well, objectively speaking, if you advance quickly with Otos or Spain, in the vast majority of cases you go straight to fortress age, in very few cases you stay in second age, which is risky because you have less economy and you can easily fall behind. It is not the case of French 12/10, you can stay in second age or go up to fortress without suffering too much. I’m not saying that such rapid age advances aren’t a problem, but it doesn’t make sense to me to bring them into this discussion, because there are many, many civilizations that are incapable of advancing that fast.
Again, I recommend that if you want to talk about Ottos, Spain or any other civilization, make a thread about it, I would like the discussion to revolve around French 12/10.
Well, if you want to talk about statistics, you better do an analysis for me, with hypothesis tests, graphs and all the inference, don’t come and tell me “Look, it has this percentage of victories, so it’s balanced”, because the truth is that we have no idea if that percentage even meets the assumption of Normality, data independence or homogeneous distribution of errors (and assume that it is a Gaussian bell curve), But hey, I think if you have the best players in the world saying that 12/10 is a problem, then in my opinion it should be balanced.
Whats your background in stats and would you listen? Might take a day or 2 and i dont know youre capacity to parse data but if you’re truly open to it could run some anova/chi and basic t accross the win rates of civs to see what win rates are “representative” as a whole, or which ones are skewed or insignificant.
So things you claim i should look to.test
-you claim.its unrushable. So civs like aztec and haude should be low rated vs france than their win rates vs other civs correct?
its better than any other 12/10. So other 12/10 civs should perform worse vs other civs correct?
12/10 beats all civ. Frances win rate should be inflated (say above 53%?) With little variation of win rate since.its always OP?
its been OP so the above results should be dectable in prior patch?
Wouldnt be hard to do but will need to know if you can understand results. Someone who sees 46win accross 22 matchups and needs proof it wouldnt pass alpha suggests I need to.ensure.my results.would.be digestable to a basic level
Lastly your command isnt clear. Are.you saying we are unable to mention other civs builds when comparing a multiplayer balance “concern?” I.dont think you can have earnest debate of a 2 player scenario ignoring the other player.
It’s good, I work in the agricultural sector and I depend on statistical analysis to make decisions.
The only problem I have with % winrate applications is that they do not meet assumptions, and we cannot draw accurate conclusions based on that, for that reason I suggest that the data should be taken with caution.
We don’t even know if the sample is big and representative enough, I would even suggest doing an analysis with more controlled experimental data (for example, asking players of a similar elo to play games on standard maps and see how the French 12/10 performs), which, I think, could be said to be enough, since high-ranked players come to raise the balance issue.
Yes, you can, but I don’t want it to be suggested that if 3-4 civilizations have rapid advancement, then it is justified that France should also have it, because that is what is understood with your comments and it seems like a fallacy to me (And it’s also annoying and frustrating that the original discussion is moving away to other balance issues.) , that is why I suggest you make threads about it and ask for the corresponding balances for those openings. I don’t know if I explain myself.
Is that, per your statement that french only do 12/10, be then every ranked french game for the most part?
If we had 2k ranked games the vast majority would be this no? Unless the 12/10 isnt optimal or.france does have more flexibility than you suggested earlier. Win rates isnt everything but the raw data is there. The data pool isnt perfect but a obscenely op.france will.stick out.
1 player. If the argument is going to be appealing to authority a concensus of high ranked players including french mains should be included then.
This is the issue tho no? If france 12/10 beats other common meta tempo plays consistently then its op. If frances 12/10 is balanced into these meta strats then france for this meta, aside from views on if this meta is good/bad, then its balanced and not op. My point is that if something is competitve and some other civs arent thats balance issue of those civs not of france 12/10
Stats and agriculture is very important thats cool. I do agree stats have limitations. So does personal opinion which is rife with biases. Before advocating to in essense change the experience of 1000s of player ideally youd want stats opinion demonstrations and comparisons togther right? Ill see what i can cook up, tbh the stats part easy formatting it the hard part
Yes, but in my opinion, I don’t know if the number of French people who don’t do it could be ignored, but well, that’s already an anecdotal data, it could be analyzed.
Well, to name a few, Revnak, Look Tom, Kevin, Kynesie and Phoenix, I’ve heard them all complain about 12/10, there is some consensus that 12/10 is a problem. (Oh, and there’s the case of Irish, who was sweeping QR with 12/10 a few days ago)
It is a valid argument, yes. But I think that for a matter of practicality, France should be nerfed, because otherwise, the logic would be to give a 12/10 opening or similar to the rest of the civilizations.
Great, I’ll probably be busy the next few days, but as soon as I can I’d like to analyze the data with you and the rest of the guys.
For better or worse seems to be the DE trajectory, with all maps having tp and more and more civs going houseless. Would be nice if devs gave us insight into direction as this would signal if plays like french 12/10 are exception or the new rule.
Ill ask around other top players too curious their thoughts. And try and run stats between work/diaper changes here
So is this complaining about the 12/10 or is it complaining about the French Royal units from the embassy? Because talking about the musketeers is one thing but the French 12/10 is something entirely different in terms of a topic even if they are related somehow.
I think you are wrong about the French 12/10, its strong but not oppressive, and this doesn’t seem like an organic argument. I get the feeling that some people got together somewhere and complained about the 12/10 amongst themselves and decided to post here about it rather than work out how best to counter France across matchups. It’s also interesting that the assertion is made about the 12/10 being a significant issue but when someone presents a counter argument you’re asking for statistics! You never provided them to begin with! If people have an issue with the Royal embassy that’s one thing but the French 12/10 has been around forever.
It’s not rude for me to point out that sometimes it really is just a skill issue and as a community we shouldn’t ask developers to compensate for that.
Ummm well, I can take that into account, I’ll try to get some recs to prove my point. I clarify that I have an elo of 1600, if I remember correctly it’s approximately TOP 300-500, the truth is that the early 3 hussars, the royal embassy and the initial economic push (4 CDB) are the main points (all in common with the 12/10). But anyway, I’ll see about getting the recs so you can tell me what my “skill deficiencies” are.
PS: I invite everyone else to share recs, both for and against. I mean, if 12/10 is not a problem, then send recs where you beat a french doing 12/10.
Burden of proof is on you. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Me posting recordings doesn’t really do much for the argument at hand. I mean I certainly could, it isn’t hard to beat France specifically. But the proof is in demonstrating how unfair the 12/10 is in all the matchups.
So actually the best thing to do is for multiple people to play France and only ever do a 12/10 to see how OP it really is. Because if you were actually concerned with teaching the community how to counter it then you would be developing builds against it for other civs and postng those recordings. But that’s not what’s happening here.
Yeah pretty much this. So many other angles of the discussion are missing in interpreting the balance. Especially from someone making such a strong claim about a standard opening and then demanding statistics from the people who say he is wrong. What a strange debate!
Just throwing this out there for discussion. What if they only received 100w to start? Potential reason for this is that 3 cdb is objectively (proper sense of the word) better than 3 vills and France doesn’t have a shipment penalty.
When I first started reading this I thought people were talking about removing France’s 12/10, i.e. removing their 3 vil shipment and making the 12/10 impossible. I think this discussion would go a lot better if it was clear that we were just talking about making small changes to slow it down or address some of the newer changes.
Bro did you really have to make a thread about my secret french build??
12/10 has been around for french since TAD basically. The problem right now is the 3 royal musketeers card combine with infantry training time which makes that card incredibly valuable. Perhaps it should get a cost nerf instead of removing 12/10 completely.
I’m fairly certain it’s been around since the very first release back in 2005. Vanilla legacy has it, and I’m assuming the 3 vil card wasn’t added in one of those initial patches.
why not send 3 normal vills (hey can finally use that female french vill voice asset!) as first card you think? It is far less steep a change than -100w. But would maybe be jarring and we all know if you touch villager cards it will tick people off who will queue and find they don’t have their first card in deck. The only civs i know of to get -100w were TWC civs due to obvious reasons (fast age up option).
Even then , -100w and france now has the probably worst start condition (6 vill 200w/300f of spain, sweden 6 vill150f 350w, vs 6.25 villeq of france with 350f100w) outside of african civs (who have cows). even with 3cdb next, it will take time to get that 100w macro’d. I also think the irony that for people say 12/10 too common, is -100w kills market starts more, so now france is 1house age or chop for tp if good treasure with only 100w. I think it would create less build variety.
I still think nerfing the bourbon musk and/or ancien regime would be the first step. people say well they can open musk but french musk openings to my knowledge aren’t rocking the meta. But the 4.5 turbo ashi are a danger and powercreep unit imho. however, given our glacial pace of patches small incremental changes may take years to get to a good point.
