just an exemple, italy had 43% winrate before their buff, dev buffed it and now it’s completly busted, same with otto despite their winrate they are busted now, same with ethiopia they are so so strong, or also look at russia winrate at top lvl, the civ is one of the worst and they have 50% winrate or smth
So yes % winrate tell you nothing about balance and the reason is because :
1- you can’t take % of player below 1900 elo even 2000 id say honestly because these player make mistake and don’t play these civ at full potential and even 2000 elo player make mistake and the player base isn’t big enough for it
2- qs is completely blind, you pick your civ without knowing the map before so lets pick otto for exemple, otto on Mexico and otto on Sudd is clearly not the same
3- Bad Match up, lets pick an another exemple with otto, Match Up is Otto vs Germany on Sudd and the next game is Otto vs Russia on Mexico, in that case you think the % mean smth ?
I can have more exemple like that but you see my point
% winrate could be viable if we atleast can see the map before choosing the civ and even with it I am not sure because we will see the same mu almost all the time on certain maps
So ye as harisson said, % winrate can give you a direction of potential balance issue but it say nothing at all
But for explain why otto is at 50% rn it’s because of the qs map and MU, just look at china and india for exemple, those civ are on the same lvl with otto but the difference is they are good everywhere, thats why their winrate is higher ( even tho for exemple otto on Mexico is way better than india or china )