# Analyses of the ratings - Spotting the issues

https://aoe2.net/#profile-76561198118286822

I found out a new great profile. You win 4 out of 10 1v1s. Your position on the ladder? #24 of the world.

I would challenge someone like Viper and Daut start an adventure with a second account. Play only teamgaemes and win almost everything until they became 2.8k team rating. Then both start playing 1v1 for the first time on that account. I wont be surprised if one of those accounts will hit 3k for 1v1.

If some current team game player can you the ladder at #24 without even playing the real top names, then someone like the viper can you the ladder with a secondary account why higher.

This shows how broken the current ladder is.

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What harm does this cause?

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The source is unknown and dev still dont react. I hope they will find the issue.

I’ve heard that you are gaining or losing points based only on the highest player on the other team, and it seems to make sense given the results I’ve seen (beating 2x2.4k+2x1.2k as a 1.7k player in a 4v4 gains you a ton of points). Thus you’re gaining the max and lose the minimum. Would be nice if they made it based on the average, but yeah, I don’t see any real harm this is causing.

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I don’t know the exact numbers. But when I win team games I get like plus 15-20 points and when I lose is minus 10-15… So obviously the ELO will get inflated even with a 45-50% winrate. Something is wrong!

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hey, thats a great thread i am seeing just now.
I made a similiar thread, but I know what the issue is.
check herE: TG-Matchmaking - we get unbalanced game bc elo calculation is wrong

its basically a terrible calculation that values the indivduals elo over the average elo when rewarding points. the good news is, that its an EASY FIX if someone reads this.

my assumption of the formula is sth like this:

the current formula is sth like:
+/- 0 for win/loss of balanced games, +/- 3 for deviation of AVERAGE elo, +/-20 for deviation of RELATIVE elo

a better formula would be sth like:
+/- 10 for win/loss of balanced games, +/- 10 for deviation of AVERAGE elo, +/- 5 for RELATIVE elo

I mind have an idea why ratings are inflated.

At Voobly (and probably HD too) it seems like a team game is considers as 1v1 to find the total amount of Elo win/lost by the teams. That number seems to be distributed around all players.

At DE everyone seems to be compared to the average elo of the enemy. This will result in larger deltas for all players in the first place.

Lets look at some examples:

### Example 1

Voobly
4v4 - all 1600. Winning team gets +16 elo (distributed around all players), so they all get +4 elo.

DE
4v4 - all 1600. Every player is 1600 and this will be compared to 1600. The result is that everyone on the winning side will gets + 16 elo and everyone at the loosing side gets -16 elo.

There is a problem with imbalanced teams (not everyone having the same Elo).

### Example 2

Voobly
4v4 - one team is all 1600. Other team is 3x 1500, 1x 1900. Winning team still gets 16 elo to distribute. If that is team 2, then the 3 players with elo 1500 get a little bit more than 4 Elo (probably 5), will the higher rated player will just get 1 point. In total still the 16 points. In the other team everyone lost 4 points. Also a total of 16 points. So everything stays in balance.

DE
Seems teams as at Voobly:
If 4x1600 is still the loosing team, they all lost 16 elo. 4x16=64 elo in total.
At the winning times things are different:
1500 rated players will all get + 20 elo.
1900 rated player will only get + 5.
In total this will be + 65 elo.

The difference in this example is just 1 elo, but it is already an inflation of 0,25 per game for each player. Thinks can be even more extreme.

Make it 3x1400 + 1x2200 and they will even get +72 elo, while the loosing team only lost 64 elo.

In the end we even hadnt looked at teams of non equal strength, which can even make this kind of thing even worse. We had for some time the issue of unbalanced teams (fixed issue some months ago). Those unbalanced teams made things even worse.

So the issue is that total elo win isnt equal to total elo lost. This makes rating inflated and needs to be fixed.

### Another point

In the first games an the ladder you will get more points. There is some kind of multiplyer. If the average rating is above the starting rating of a new player, they will on average move up to the average rating. This means also that they will gain more points, then they will loose. This number will be multiplyed be a factor. This will also lead to and inflation of the ladder.

I have to say: I do like this feature. It makes sure starting players will get there true rating more quickly. But this only works if the ladder is not inflating or deflating. Since the ladder is inflating, it works like a multiplyer on the inflation as well.

### Conclusion

We kind of found the two main reasons for the inflated ladder:

1. winning elo isnt equal to losing elo.
2. New players works as multiplyer on the inflation if there is inflation at the ladder.

### Fixes

Why dont we just use the calculation at Voobly and HD as base? It will fix issue #1. That will be the main reason why there is inflation.
You can still add some multiplyer for new players so they will move up or down more quickly. That is not really an issue when the inflation of #1 is fixed.

If they change the way how the calculations work, then i think it is a good idea to recalculate the rating of every players again. I know there are APIs where you can get the full history of a player. That makes me conclude the devs will have such list too. They just need to re evalute the elo of all players from all games.

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This is posted at the upcoming AoE update. To makes thinks clear: This about AoE, not AoE II.
I am not really into AoE, but it seems like AoE had also some issues. The devs even decided to reset the ladder.

I hope they will fix the AoE II Team game ladder also at some moment. I dont know if the devs will also reset the current rankings on AoE II after they fix everything.

I also found the following picture about the team game ratings.

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2 months age i started this threads. Until today still no response from the devs.

RM 1v1: 50% percentile: 1020 (almost 1000, almost no inflation)

RM Teamgames: 50% percentile: 1350. The average rating is already inflated by 35%.
Note that: At May 10, when i started this thread, it was just 1275. So the ratings are inflated by 6% in just over 2 months! Given the current inflation we will hit 1600 as average team games rating! This is really bad design of the team game rating and something needs to be done to make the team game ratings reiable again!

I see they added death match support.
50% percentile for 1v1 DM is about 1050. This is also probably due to not many players playing death maps. Seems like not that much inflation to the 1v1 ladder, which is the same for 1v1 RM. So also no issues with the 1v1 DM ladder.

With DM Team games we see the same as RM Team games. The ladder is really inflated. The 50% percentile is already about 1425. This means an inflation of 42,5% in yust 9 months since release. This is almost the same result als the team game rating for RM.

This shows us that there is an issue with BOTH team game ladders. They are hugely inflated and the devs needs to fix the underlying issues so ranked team games (RM and DM) will get a better experience.

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I dont know why, because i didn’t read anyrhing about a change of elo, but it seems like that devs messes up 1v1 elo. I heard stories where winning player looses elo in some cases and loosing player gets elo.

If the devs have a look at that i hope they also look at this issue.

The ELO system was designed for 1vs1 games and does not work for team games. It works well for the players on the extreme i.e. Viper will always have a high team ELO and some pleb will always have a very low ELO.

The system is designed to take into account the difference in ELO points but in a team game if you do that you are doomed. How does affect to the winning percentage the existence of a much rated player ? The ELO variance inside the team ? Top rated ? Lowest rated ? Number of players with higher rating in one team ? Premade teams vs non premade ? yada yada yada etc. etc. the list could go on and on.

On top of that then there is the point you are complaining about here which is how you distribute the points after a win/lose game.

I know that elo is designed for 1v1 and needs to be adopted to team games. Currently there are multiple alternatives that are suitable for team games. I hope that the devs had a look at this when they decides on this elo calculation. So i hope those things will never be an issue. Still you have the difference between premades and solos. Given the same skill level, the premade team will mostly win by superior communication. In the end i think team elo is less reiable then 1v1 elo, but still good enough to use, if there are no issues in the calculation, like i already point out.

I still hope from a respons of the devs on this subject. Still waiting from May 10 till now…

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The median of the TG RM rating is already inflated by an addition 10 points since 12 days ago. For TG DM it looks like even an addition 15 points. I really hope the devs will correct this issues pretty soon.

I would love to see a response from the devs. This issue together with the lag/desyncs is killing TGs.

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If nothing else, they should at least account for the difference in median rating when carrying ratings across between 1v1 and TG. I saw an account with nearly 2k 1v1 ELO where the person had only played 2 1v1 games with a 50% win rate. They had 2.2k TG rating, so I assume what happened is they played TG first, and it carried an approx 2k rating across for their first 1v1 game.

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Why does it matter so much to you? This whole thread is basically a monologue from you.

The inflation affects everyone. The outliers are minimal. So what if there’s one guy with a very high 1v1 elo from a couple games? It’s not affecting 99% of the other players?

So what if TG elo is inflated? I would happily bet all those top elos are arranged teams so they can happily face each other while the other 90% of the community still faces moderately fair matches?

The single elo for 2v2,3v3,4v4,random teams and arranged teams all being bundled into a singular number is blatantly skew as it is. It doesn’t matter about inflation. Its a completely skew number anyway.

Do you lose elo if you drop from a match but your team still wins afterwards?

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I saw: 3k elo is reached by modri

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Teamgame Elo has been inflated for a long time but I feel like it just keeps getting worse.

At some point I was TG Elo 1750 and Rank 5000.
A few month later I was also TG Elo 1750 but Rank 10.000.
That means, either the number of people playing ranked doubled (which is not the case) or: the Teamgame Elo of everyone is increasing!

That does not make any sense or at least that is not how an Elo system should be working.

I even saw a lot of people who had only a 1v1 elo of about 1000 but a TG Elo of 2000.

Right now it seems your Teamgame Elo depends more on the amount of games you play rather then your winrate…

Because the TG Elo is broken Teamgame Tournaments use the 1v1 Elo of participants to rate their skill group…

Will it ever be fixed?
Will the Devs at least sometime mention what is wrong with it?

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