The starting elo should be somewhere between 600-800.
Let’s say at 1000 ELO, from now on we make 800 the starting elo. The average will go down, but very slowly. There are 40.000 ranked players currently in AoE2. After the new elo is 800, it will take another 40.000 players to lower the starting elo by half the difference (so new average will be 900). So you would need 80.000 players to reach an average elo of 900, and the starting elo is still 800.
It’s like buildings, it’s not a permanent solution, but the time buildings will be destroyed (unless you use Roman concrete) is so far in the future that for the sake of our purposes it’s permanent. The fact we have words such as “an 1000 elo player” and “a TRUE 1000 elo player” shows the system is broken. Is lowering the elo to 800 going to be perfect? no, but it’s much better than what we have.
Another option would be:
As for the placement. You could have the 10 placement games like this: Start your 1st ranked match as if you had 500 elo (the system treats you as if you had 500 elo), if you win, play next as if you had 600, if you win again play next as if you had 700. Maximum is 1200, minimum is 300. But for each win you “gain” +100 fake elo, and for each loss you “lose” -100 fake elo.
The final score after those 10 games is going to be your elo. If you lose all, you get 300. This will also have the side effect of increasing the average elo since if you lose you opponent gets points out of nowhere (good), but you don’t really lose anything, and I doubt there would be many new players to end up with 1000 or 1200 elo at the end.
Why should the starting elo 1000 be changed?
All the negative fallout from changing the system (inflating/deflating average ELO, putting lower rated players up against tougher “new” opponents) is much less problematic than what I am seeing now: players starting and leaving because they’re losing 8-20 games in a row.
Considering the real risk of the game dying from a lack of new blood/sponsorship, I would think that the top priority should be making the game more accessible for new players, rather than worrying about the established players’ numbers next to their profile.
It’s a miserable time trying to introduce the ranked system to friends since it really does just boil down to “yeah, you’re going to lose - probably 5, 10, 15 times in a row before you get to your fledgling level”. It’s suuuuuper rough trying to get people to basically just roll with the punch only with the hopeful promise of (maybe) it being a better time at a lower ELO for them, if only they can “get there”.
When the starting ELO puts you in top 40% of players. You know the game has big issues.
In League of Legends, most people go in Bronze or Silver after their first 10 games. In AoE2 they go Platinum and then have to lose 5, 10, 15 games to get to their true elo and actually have fun experience in ranked.