Getting same civ as random over and over and over

Age of Empires II: DE II - Discussion
1

probably got the same civ 4 times in a few matches … how does the RNG work exactly and why is it so hard to get it right

2

Unless you are going “Full Random” (instead of just random or the question mark icon next to the choose civ) this shouldn’t happen, again, don’t use “Full Random”, but if you aren’t, report it as a bug

3

didnt they say they fixed it? wouldnt be surprised they broke it again because of the latest addition

4

Statistically there was a chance, a small one… around 1/91k

5

What is the calculation for this number?

6

Presumably got the civ three times in a row.

Getting any one particular civ 3 times in a row is 1/91125.

However, I’d argue it’s more useful to think in repeats. Getting any civ twice is 1/45. You had a 100% chance to get “A” civ, but then only 1/45 to have that specific civ repeat.

You have a 1/45 getting a civ picked twice. you have a 1/2025 of getting huns twice.

IDK exactly what this person is saying, but either they got a civ, and then got it 2 or three times in a row after that.

Even if we say they’re misunderstanding the stats, and only got any civ three times in a row, that’d be 1/2025, which yeah seems unlikely. Not unfathomable but noteworthy.

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7

Understood. Got confused by 1000 round figure (91k)

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8

Actually getting a certain civ 4x in a row, but as the first pick doesn’t matter (what matters is getting them the 3 next times) indeed it’s (1/45)^3.

It’s common to forget rare combinations can happen when randomised, such as a long series at heads or tails.

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9

LOL, yeah I went to explain that later on. I assumed whoever had come up with the 1/91k hadn’t thought that thru.

So you got a civ, then got it three more times in a row?

10

Yup, hence having it 4x in a row in the end.

Though I misread the first post, the OP says “in a few matches” and not exaclty 4/4. Making the probability decrease significantly.

Ods of getting the same civ 4 times :
Over 4 matches : 1/91k
Over 5 matches : 1/18.6k
Over 6 matches : 1/6.3k
…
Over 10 matches : 1/496

Still unlikely but not crazy that it might happen if you play regulary for years.

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