I have to agree. I can’t confirm this but from everything I can tell this DLC was the originally intended 5th anniversary DLC, and is now being repurposed as the “double down on consoles” dlc. I really doubt just from those facts alone this dlc will be smaller than some of the others in comparison.
I’d also like to address some arguments in regards to RoR, TMR, and V&V that might seem to indicate that FE has been trying to get away with doing less and less for a while.
Now I’m no naive fanboy. RoR was confused and disappointing at best, a shameful re-monetization of aoe1 at worst. TMR was nothing special IMO, and V&V I characterize as a disaster through and through.
However one might look to RoR and point out that the missing campaigns show they were trying to get away with as little as possible. However I’d like to counter saying from LOTW, all the way through to TMR, every 8-9 months a dlc was released, with exception of RoR, which was about 3 months late. I think porting over aoe1 was harder than they’d planned, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went over budget even without those extra campaigns, hence the jump from $10 to $15 sale price. I think they bit odd more than they could chew and some campaigns were left on the cutting room floor.
One might look to TMR, the doc with the fewest new scenarios, 15. Technically so to do DoI but that also had a completely redone prithviraj 5, as well as appreciable improvements to bayinnaung and almeida. And DoI added 3 civs. However firstly shortly after RoR was released SOTL released a video where he points out that despite a good win rate Roman’s pick rate was quite low. The theory being, RoR sold poorly, so fewer people even had romas as an option to pick. Also TMR has some other weird things. The qizilbash scenario unit that has an elite version and both fortified churches and mule carts as these pseudo regional buildings. Also there’s the roadmap that implied we’d get another civ split in late 2023. I think TMR was originally going to offer more but when RoR underperformed, TMR was pared down to just about bare bones to recoup the losses.
And in regards to V&V, while I think the communication was absolutely shameful, and consequently I’ll never trust anything they say ever again, I don’t think V&V being so low effort was born out of the desire to just do as little as possible. Without getting into the weeds of it all, I’m pretty sure BFG was originally planned for March 2024, and when it was determined CA was going to miss that deadline, something like V&V was the only thing they could make in time.
All this to say, I don’t think they’re going out of their way to make DLCs contain as little as possible. If we knew nothing about this dlc, I’d have no reason to assume it’d be smaller than a 2civ 3 campaign dlc. However what we do know and can infer gives us lots of reason to believe if anything this dlc will be bigger, not smaller, than normal.