Let me start here, firstly, your chart shows an over 50% WR with Mexico. Usually WR is an unreliable balancing metric because the ELO system is designed to produce 50% winrates. This can result in inflation or deflation of players’ Elo in order to keep a near 50/50 WR. I don’t think Mexico is op in Sup 1v1, but your own graph, if anything, implies they are. Pointing to pick-rate isn’t fair here because you can only pick a civ you own and I think a majority of players don’t own all civs.
Secondly, we’re talking specifically about Treaty. I’m not sure if we track WR in their, but everyone who plays treaty seriously knows Mexico is extremely OP in that mode.
What had I suggested nerfing? Did I consider balance effects on 1v1 Sup?
First off, things locked behind age 4-5 will have relatively little impact on a 1v1. Age 5 is rarely reached and, unless things have changed a lot, most games end before age 4. With that in mind, let’s look at my list:
Presidial Lancers (4). I suggested a nerf to the changed attack as it’s insanely strong late game. It won’t show up in most 1v1s but a simple solution if my nerf was too much would be adding to the card: “Guard Chinaco” tech costs 40% less. That would off-set the nerf to it as a 1v1 card while still being a significant nerf in Treaty.
Nerfs to Tlaxcala Alliance (Fed 2) and Aztec Pueblos (Fed 4), neither of these are used much in 1v1. They might be taken, but usually aren’t sent. In treaty both are extremely powerful and should be nerfed. Lets balance these cards based on where they are actually used.
Smokeless Powder (obtained via Tlaxcala Alliance or a Jesuit Mission) adds 10% attack to Gunpowder Inf and Cav, and 5% to artillery for 250f and 250c. An across-the-board nerf will not be an issue 1v1, especially if the cost is cut in half. Just make it 5% for GP units and Artillery. This is rarely used in 1v1 (unless someone built a Jesuit Mission TP in which case it’s a good nerf because Conqs are op as is). Mexico rarely uses the card that allows it to be accessed.
This is the first one that might be an issue in a normal 1v1, but I don’t think it’s unfair. Guerilla Tactics (3) would be +10/10% for Rifle Infantry and would Research Vet Salts and give them the stealth ability big button. It’s a small nerf with a small buff that won’t change much but will be big in treaty as Salt nerfs continue to pile up.
Plan of Miramare (4) transforms all your Salts into Guard French Skirms and adds +2 Rifle Inf range. I suggested cutting the range in half with no other changes. If needed cut the cost from 750f 750w to 600f 600w. +1 range and the power spike is still nice, but +2 range is OP in treaty Skirm wars.
This is the second one that would have an impact on 1v1. If you consider this a major concern just have aging to 2 give a second cow. At that point it would basically be a straight up buff to 1v1 while nerfing something that is an issue in treaty where people regularly have like 57 livestock working.
Land of Juarez (Fed 5). +20% damage on all Infantry and Cavalry near the flag (which also gets +70 range) is too much in treaty and will have no meaningful impact on 1v1.
For the number of overall units Mexico gets (115 pop space plus approximately 35 pop worth of natives), both Chinacos and Salts are too good late game. Mexico gets an army similar in size to the Dutch but with an economy that matches or surpasses that of a regular European civilization. Most of the changes required to fix Mexico’s treaty issues won’t have a significant impact on 1v1 and therefore should be made. The only reason not to balance Treaty would be if it would have a meaningful negative effect on 1v1 or team.
I’ve been a very vocal supporter of nerfs to Ottomans, but I’d like to think it possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. Ottomans are a scourge to 1v1 and Team, but the level of imbalance in those is dwarfed by how strong Mexico is in treaty.