Not true. If you lose water it’s still possible to win. But you need to make fast and decisive transition to land. And then sometime later make a sneak dock and try kill enemy fish. Fighting hard on water leads to slower castle age time. If one guy decides to stop producing and uses market to go up then they have a solid time window to do significant damage on land.
And there is a small luck factor regarding TC placement. But boar and gold/stone are much more uniformly distributed than in the past. As long as you are comfortable scouting with multiple sheep then you will always find what you need.