The winrate data is abundantly clear. Ottomans are selected almost 10% of the time and have a win rate above average, at 52%.
I highly recommend looking at the civ grid data the Sunbros have put together. It shows the phenomenon pretty clearly. You can even view win rates by length of match. (for some reason my link is being censored. There’s a link in this thread: Sunbros CIV GRID and hidden data graphs - Age of Empires III: DE / III - Discussion - Age of Empires Forum)
While yes, my evidence is anecdotal, jump on the ladder in the mid-Elo range and let me know if you see Otto players do anything other than the turtle FI. A vast majority of all Otto games I and my friends have played in the last year in the ~1200 ELO range have been against this turtle FI strat. It’s actively killing our desire to play against randoms.
As far as buffs vs nerfs:
Buffs:
-2 extra LOS on all artillery except culvs which get 0.5
–This is a huge buff. This grants a huge increase in vision for units with the longest LOS in game. The culv bonus might seem small, but it now almost guarantees Otto culvs get the first shot in culv wars, which is literally the most important thing with culv micro. And culv micro wins games
-Guard humbaraci are 10 res cheaper
–This unit is already considered very good and easily fielded. The change is minor but completely unneeded for an already near-OP unique unit.
-Age 2 politician the Iman is 100 food cheaper, now 800 food
–As far as I know this politician isn’t used frequently. Any impacts are unknown
-New unique Spy unit that benefits from promotions, improving hp and attack speed (not listed in PUP notes)
–This is way too good. Ottos didn’t need a new spy, particularly one that’s better than other Euro spies. The attack speed promotion is especially concerning
-4 humbaraci card is now 5
–Not a huge change, but again, unnecessary
-Azaps do 8 dmg up from 6, with multipliers of 3 instead of 4.
–Azaps are already good units, just not meta. Their dmg against cav is 24 regardless, but now do 33% more base damage against all other units. We’re at a point where the player base will realize how strong Azaps are and will start using them heavily.
Nerfs
-15% TC build speed reduction to Yoruks
–This is completely meaningless. With 8 yoruks currently, a TC builds in 50 seconds. This “nerf” increases that to a whipping 57.5. Wow, 7.5 whole seconds. That’s what, 1/4th of a free settler (train time is 30s with all mosque techs). Otto players need to send just one extra vil to build it in the same time or have an almost imperceptible delay in their boom
-Millet system costs 75w up from 50w.
–Again, meaningless. 25 extra wood is nothing. That’s exactly one small wood treasure. On another civ, 25 w on an early tech hurts, since you have to macro for that and vils. But for Otto, you don’t have to macro for vils. So it’s impact is almost non-existent. It means that you can’t drop a mosque and research the tech immediately, but Otto players already don’t do that, the meta is drop a TC; the tech is usually researched in transition to Age 2
-Abus gunner train speed increased by 2s from 42 to 44.
–Again, meaningless. The issue with Abus is not they train too quickly, but how effective a small group of them are. Heck, even if the train speed is a problem, a 4% train speed increase does nothing. If we compare that to crossbow, the most common light infantry that shares the same role as Abus, they train in 27s, Abus in 44s. Abus are worth 2+ crossbow (they do 36 siege, bypassing armor, to 16 ranged damage of crossbows). Meaning that by effective pop, Abus train 18% faster than crossbow with this nerf.
-Abus multiplier decreased against light cav from 2.5 to 2.25
–Finally, a nerf that actually has impact. However, again, the issue with Abus is not their ability to counter ranged cav. It’s from their ability to counter large masses of infantry and win with few numbers while able to kite hand cav due to an instantaneous firing animation. While it’s a good change to make a unit that bypasses armor do less damage to the unit they’re designed to counter to bring it more on-line with the rest of the game, it’s not addressing the issue
-Bashibozuk vill multiplier changed to 0.5
–Desperately needed as no militia unit should be able to threaten vils. Given that all other militia units have a 0.5 multiplier, this is more a bug fix than a nerf.
-Humbaraci artillery multiplier reduced to 2.0 from 2.25
–These guys were too good against artillery. But it’s not going to have an impact. Why? Because normal grens have a 0.5 multiplier against artillery. So they still outperform grens by 4 times. This needs to be nerfed heavily to be in-line with the rest of the grenadier class. This nerf is completely insufficient. They already have 2 more base dmg, 25 more HP, and 2 more range than grens.
-Spahi hidden cost increased to 400 from 280.
–literally not even a nerf. It doesn’t increase the cost of shipments or techs. The only impact will be on the score jump. Kill bounties are increased, so your opponent is no longer getting short changed from killing them.
-Kapikulu corps cost increased to 2500f from 2200f
–The Age 4 church tech that sends 5 Spahi. Realistically, this increase is from 1100f to 1250f since most Otto players include palace intrigue in their decks. 150f extra in Age 4 is completely meaningless, and even the full 300 food extra is unremarkable. Minor nerf with no real impact
As detailed above, the nerfs, when even impactful, do not address the real problems, which is an easy turtle FI backed with free villager production (meaning turtling does not impact your eco), excessively strong artillery foundry units Abus and Humbaraci. And the buffs are unnecessary and grant unfair advantages to Ottoman players, particularly the culverin LOS increase and Humbaraci cost decrease.
The botto FI needs to be heavily de-incentivized by making it slower and easier to punish (FIs are supposed to be extremely risky). Give a meaningful nerf to TC building by making Yoruks unable to build them (settlers building TCs for other civs isn’t an issue). Nerf Abus gunners so that heavy cav can actually kill them. Nerf Humbaraci so they don’t counter artillery, which is supposed to counter them.