So it occurred to me to look at aoe3 and 4 steamapp update history and previous released updates.
First thing I noticed, I think aoe3 got the super short end of the stick this year, almost certainly because of AOM:retold.
It hasn’t had an update since January, and update history on steam db completely stopped at the end of June, only to resume in the last few days.
Aoe4 development does not seem to have been affected, tho and an update was released on august 22. To put a finer point on it, during the rbw, after the qualifiers but before the finals.
If the reason aoe2 hasn’t gotten an update in months is because of rbw, you’d think that’d also apply to aoe4. So presumably rbw is not the cause of the the lack of updates to aoe2.
And while it does seem the various studios are willing to redirect staff, such as temporarily shelving aoe3 to help with, presumably, AOM:retold, any affect on aoe2 seems comparatively minor.
Which leads me to believe dlc 5 is the largest contributor to why we havent seen updates in months.
And the longest period before this w/o updates, was between rotr and de. We might be in for big things with dlc 5. Not trying to overhype but that is what the facts suggest.
V&V however was three weeks, LotW was about a month before. DotD was about two months before, but name-dropped about two months before that, and RoR was first name-dropped like 8 months before.
So yes, the more recent DLCs seem to prefer announcing closer to release (RoR excluded) but a longer timeframe would not be unheard of, and especially if DLC 5 is truly of the scope we believe it to be, and given the pomp and circumstance of DE’s 5th anniversary, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think there might be extra time between announcement and release. Give just that little more time to hype and get everyone to pre-order.
Right now we’re only about 5 weeks out from November 14th (which I think is now the likeliest release date). Given achievement_319 was removed, I don’t think an announcement today is unlikely.
Honestly the only thing I think is a valid reason to believe an announcement is not imminent, is the upcoming aoe mobile release. You could argue it doesn’t make sense to announce a big aoe2 dlc so close to a new release coming out. I think the counter argument is there is not a lot of overlap between aoe2 players and aoe mobile players.
And again, why after two months remove achievement_319 NOW. I really can’t see it where uploading the achievement originally was a mistake that they somehow just noticed and corrected. according to the change log an achievement needs like 5 or six data points. I don’t think you accidentally enter all those data points. So if it wasn’t accidentally published, then alternatively it was purposefully published, and consequently if it has now been un-published, i’d argue it’s because achievement_319 now, or soon, will no longer serve the purpose for which it was uploaded. And for what purpose do you upload a single achievement if not to tease something. If there were all the 44 achievements, then maybe you could argue it was for testing purposes. but I don’t think they were testing just one achievement. So if achievement_319 was uploaded for the purposes of teasing, and it has now outlived it’s usefulness, that seems to me an announcement is imminent.
And AoE3 also got a, “From today [Oct 8th], Age of Empires III (2007) will no longer be available for purchase,” and a, “Hey! Multiplayer services will cease to run for it on October 30th at 10am!”, too.
(Although, I’m hearing reassurance in a thread that LAN and Direct IP multiplayer games would still be possible)
Unless you are a South East Asian. Not only does it lack civs but you will be extremely disappointed that even the native settlements are fake in South East Asian maps of AoE3.