Predict the Oct... Cof, cof... November balance changes challenge:

  • Goal: To guess some (or all!), the incoming balance changes.
  • Rules: Put your predictions in a post. Notice that the challenge is about predicting, so please don’t provide suggestions or your wishlist for civ changes. The challenge is more about putting yourself in the balance team’s shoes and try to think about the same changes they were working about these months.
  • Prize: Fun for everyone, and “status” for those that assess correctly. And this penguin badge :penguin:.

My guess is that they actually didn’t use the hole 3 months to come up with changes, (busy with aoe 3 de). Instead they looked over the last two weeks of pro tournament results only and went on from there.

generally I expect only few changes.

–> Frank’s get a nerf to berrys and chivalry UT.
–> Bulgarians get a buff? Don’t know what, maybe bargains UT cheaper.
–> Koreans get a buff? Discounted siege maybe.
–> Lithuanians get a slight nerf, maybe leitis +5 gold cost

Now some predictions of what they won’t change:

I wish they would fix aquebus and buff gunpowder in generally but I don’t expect it.

I also don’t except a cav archer frame delay change or something in that direction, nor do I expect that they rework the reworked teutons again (Both things I would appreciate personally).

Lastly I expect devs to ignore step lancer, there won’t be changes to them.


I just wish the devs will fix the cavalry archers problems, for me this problem for now is the most important problem than anything or any civ balance.
Another thing is the Goths, the Goths actually with their stupid buff in the last time they became completely a big joke especially the 20% discount for their militia in the dark age which is like free supplies in the dark age!!! I wish the devs will fix this sick buff too.

With these two suggestions i think it will be good for now


My main prediction is that HC will be buffed a bit because SOTL made a video about that just few weeks after the last balance patch, so they may have had time to test some changes. Also HC buff is an indirect goth nerf (so they wont touch goths because of this), although goths have their own HC to enjoy the buff.

Another candidate of buffing are koreans: wood discount applied to siege as well.

And of course, a fix for arquebus and organ cannons.

I dont think they will touch cav archers or battle elephants by the moment.

Regarding nerfs, leithis cost/ training time will be nerfed a bit. And the imperial camel upgrade cost/researching time for indians (in order to balance team games).

Magiars and bulgarians, and steppe lancers will have to wait for another patch.

Nice post!

Okey, here we go:

Khmer:nerf the farming rate. Or maybe rework the bonus

Turks: get elite skirm

Korean : new military bonus. Probably free acher armors

Steppe lancer now cost 30 gold.
Hand cannon buff, probably more hp
Long sword buff, probably more speed

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while i think these changes are necessary

along with something to do with indians, like a nerf to their camels, and a buff to something else so they arent OP in TGs, but more viable in 1v1

im pessimistic atm, so i agree with @Geojak92

^^this is what im betting on might change

and maybe some nerf to khmer eles in some way, judging by the way high tier players have been having issues



There are too many civilations so we may guess incorrectly.

I think they will make just profile icons again but I am writing something more optimistic.

Turks gains Steppe Lancer and Elite Steppe Lancer upgrade is free.
Huns gains Steppe Lancer.

For events, I think they made a Hordic/Nomadic a European and Chinese(?). So i think they will make American or African civ. Maybe Malians with gbeto buff.

I forgot that one the most important balance change: Buffing Penguin!


Teutons, Goths and Lithuanians will remain the same (Is a must)
Bulgarians, Cumans, Koreans, Portuguese, Tatars and Turks will receive Buffs
Chinese and Khmer will get nerfs
Steppe Lancer and Cavalry Archer will get some adjustments.
Elite Battle Elephant will get back the 50% trample damage.

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You have to fight for your rights to claim the badge. Thus, only for winners.

The losers only receive this other badge :raccoon:

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I hope they finally balance Imperial Camel, so indians don’t rule the team games anymore.

Koreans are not getting any change.

Lithunians, leitis gold increase.

Khmer speed bonus reduced by 5% at least.

According to trirem’s logic CA and HC are exactly the same as the HD version, so the devs might be clueless how to fix those units, with that in mind it is hard to predict if firing rate or frame delay would be changed.

Other changes are tough to predict since there aren’t more important things to balance first, bulgarians needs a redesign.


yes!! i want to lose now! i take back all my predictions, and only predict this:

mongols,mayans,aztecs will be buffed
porto,italy and turks will be nerfed!

i fforgot about this one, remembered earlier today but then forgot… would be great if they helped the frame delay on that poor thing. i love them, but hardly use em due to the bug that causes them to stutter

I see the devs are very cautious with balance changes.
The most radical changes in last patches were the super leitis and the over-nerf for battle elephants the rest were minor buff/nerfs.

So this are my predictions:

Elite Battle Elephants: 50% trample damage.
Hand canoneers: +5HP, +accuracy
Cavalry archers: - Attack Delay

Khmer: Lose Husbandry or Lose Plate Barding Armor or Battle Elephants +10% faster, Balista Eles benefits from the civ bonus.

Lithuanians: Leitis costs +10G

Koreans: Possibly a flat -10/-15 wood discount to all military units, i don’t see devs giving -20% wood discount to siege units.

Turks: This one is very hard to predict, in 20 years they received almost nothing. I think devs don’t give a ■■■■ this civ: it will stay the same.

Bulgarians: Get stone mining techs for free or get crossbowman.

Franks: Nerf to berry’s gathering

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Too much and would make Leitis unusable again, and Lithuanians are fine.
Intstead of messing with the Leitis stats and cost or TT I will do the following:
Give them the Leitis Armor class
Give to Spearmen, Kamayuks, Mamelukes and Camel Riders another bonus damage vs Leitis (20 or 30 damage per hit) and this will stop the endless complain about them and any Lithuanian player with think two times before sending Leitis at charging Halbs.

Bulgarians: military buildings and blacksmith -75 wood
Celts: lumberjack work rate increase: 10% > 10% > 15% > 15%
Cumans: elite kipchak +1 attack (still keep the spreading of additional arrows)
Franks: reduced forager work rate (to 15% or 20%)
Goths: infantry discount: -10% > -20% > -30% > -40% (nerf early, buff imp)
Italians: increased creation speed of genoese crossbowman
Koreans: regain defense building speed bonus but at a reduced rate (i.e. 20% faster)
Lithuanians: lose Guilds OR decreased leitis rate of fire (e.g. 1.9 --> 2.2)
Portuguese: ballistics free

Might be some Khmer and Vietnamese changes, but I’m not imaginative enough for these.


Why are you nerfing celts and lithuanians but not Aztecs, mayans, etc

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he’s not… apparently he’s only predicting what the devs will do… these are all 100% unbiased predictions apparently :joy: :joy: especially furtherlime’s :joy: :joy:


Not me.
I’m actually terrible at using Lithuanians, but it’s just what I’m comfortable with predicting. :man_shrugging:
I’m also terrible at using Aztecs, then the devs nerfed a decade old bonus of military unit creation speed so I assumed Aztecs must have been pretty strong…


so you’re basing these assumed nerfs for civs based on what? cuz i can tell you that if celts and lithuanians need nerfs, there is about 3 other civs you didn’t mention who need nerfs.

Sure go ahead and predict yours.


I guess there will be no change.